November 1st or bust

OPINION seems to be hardening that if there is to be a snap election, November 1 is the favoured date.

Even though the clocks will have changed and it will be dark around 5pm – always bad for canvassing the elderly - Labour Party organizers are advising Gordon Brown that the party machine can be ready then for a poll.

There’s been much speculation that any poll will be on October 25, but with perhaps two million voters overseas for the half term school break, the turnout could be so low as to wipe out claims that Mr Brown has been given a proper mandate. And in some Labour marginals, the absence of voters could put the Tories in.

Europe is now rearing itself as a potential election issue. The constitution – sorry reform treaty – could wreck Labour’s chances. The Sun newspaper is having much fun here in Bournemouth, with a bus plastered with slogans demanding a referendum being driven around the streets outside the conference hall. The Tories, backed by the TUC, are demanding a vote of the people but Gordon Brown said on television this morning that a referendum was not necessary.

It looks very much like he’s digging a hole for himself, and perhaps his party.