Sunderland result might deter Brown

SUNDERLAND is a metropolitan city in the North East of Engand. Hardly Tory territory but yesterday Labour lost a council by-election there. It adds ammunition to the belief that in a good year for the Conservatives, the party could win the newly created seat Sunderland Central.

Yesterday's by-elections point to a nationwide Conservative lead which would give rise to a hung parliament, in direct contradition of the opinion polls. This could be the clinching factor if Gordon Brown doesn't seek a five year mandate in November. But before the Conservatives start jumping for joy, whooping "remember 1970" - when Ted Heath confounded all the pundits to defeat Harold Wilson - the probability must be that Labour will win the next election, but perhaps not on the scale being forecast.

As I wrote yesterday, stop dithering Gordon. All we need is a simple yes or no.