This weekend's polls will be crucial

WITH the generally good reception the Tories’ tax plans have been received by the national media, and the coverage it was given on television last night, the Conservatives seem to be convincing themselves that they’ve called Gordon Brown’s bluff.

If only it was that simple. A General Election WILL be held in November if Labour’s opinion poll lead is either maintained or increased after the Blackpool conference closes. Labour will be sampling in the crucial marginals in the south east to gauge whether the Tories have managed to reconnect with their traditional voters by promising changes on inheritance tax and stamp duty.

That’s not to say a snap poll will be ruled out if there is a Cameron bounce in the polls. But it will be difficult for Brown to justify to himself with any certainty that Labour would increase its majority if an election is held in November.

Today’s announcement on troop withdrawals from Iraq, which the Tories insist should have been made to parliament next week, was condemned by Dr Liam Fox as cheap electioneering stunt. It’s all part of the febrile atmosphere engulfing the Westminster Village and the political classes. If the public feels ignored or resents all this election talk, they may just stay at home on polling day – and that would be an utter disaster for Labour who generally win elections when the turn out is high.