Brown's sauce

WE'RE heading for a bruising devisive battle in the Commons on the EU reform Treaty "not a constitution" parliamentary ratification "not a referendum."

The only way Gordon Brown can be defeated in the Commons is if a significant number of Labour backbenchers are joined by the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Ulster MPs, and a majority of Liberal Democrats to back the Tory demand for a referendum. As yet, we don't know how the Tory left, led by Ken Clarke, will vote.

David Cameron is pinning all his hopes on this vote, which he will paint more as a matter of trust in Brown rather than the narrow confines of the EU Treaty, which although the public don't like it, will not be the dominant factor at the next election.

Brown seems to think the European Treaty is a necessary evil. He's not bowled over by it but will doggedly force it through the parliamentary process. Yesterday's statement to the Commons was entirely defensive. As Cameron pointed out, the word referendum didn't pass his lips - rather like his speech to Labour's conference when he never uttered the words Tory, Conservative, or Liberal Democrat.

Resisting a referendum is a legal blur of words, not a wholehearted belief in the need to give the people a vote. He is looking slippery and that may just finish off his credibility with the voters.

UPDATE at 18:45

In his questions session with the media today - if the PM can have one giving him the oxygen of publicity, then so can the Leader of the Opposition - Cameron was asked repeatedly if he would promise a retrospective referendum on the EU Treaty in the Tories' election manifesto, even if the Treaty had been ratified by then.

Mr Cameron dodged the issue, saying the time for a referendum was now, when EU countries were busy ratifying the treaty. As slippery as Brown? Probably, but of course Cameron has his own Eurosceptics to appease which means he won't rule out a national vote on the UK's relation with "Europe."