More problems for Nick Clegg following Norwich North debacle

THE Conservatives have broken through the 40% barrier in the latest YouGov poll for The People,  with Labour and the Liberal Democrats both down 1%. While it is easy to understand why Labour is sinking - the public has seen through Gordon Brown's pretence that Labour is not going to cut public spending if it wins the next election - the state of the Liberal Democrats is puzzling.

The best interpretation I can come up with is that Labour defectors are going directly to the Tories. Coupled with disenchanted Liberal Democrat voters switching to the Tories, it is potent evidence that David Cameron could be heading for a landslide victory. I use the word could because until the Conservatives can demonstrate that they will make headway in Scotland and northern England, it is going to be hard work for Cameron to pick up enough gains for a comfortable victory.

Both Labour and the Lib Dems have had bad news this weekend. In Norwich North, Dr Ian Gibson who resigned as Labour MP over his expenses, has still to decide whether to stand as an independent against the Labour candidate Chris Ostrowski. Given the complete muddle of the Lib Dems in the constituency over the selection of its candidate, it's looking good for a comfortable Conservative win.

Meanwhile in Greater Manchester, Paul Moss who was selected by the Liberal Democrats as candidate General Election for Denton and Reddish  has now quit the party for Labour, saying:  “Nationally the Liberal Democrats are a complete joke."

The Lib Dems should be enjoying a revival, given that their MPs have not really been exposed as expenses cheats like the Tories and Labour, and the high regard the public has for treasury spokesman Vince Cable.

That they are in the doldrums shows once again the lack of impact Nick Clegg has made as party leaders. Or could it be that, as in the run-up to 1997, voters have conditioned themselves to vote for change, and nothing is going to stop a stampede of support away from a tired government to the political party which looks best to deliver that change.