Tories not quite ahead enough in polls

Looking like hung parliament

Six pollsters’ latest polls generally show a slight decline for the Conservatives. The Conservatives’ lead over Labour is shown as:

ICM (Guardian) has 8% (up from 7%),

Angus Reid (Political Betting) has 12% (unchanged),

YouGov (Sun) has 7% (down from 8%),


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ComRes (Independent; ITV) has 9% (down from 10%),

Populus (Times) has 9% (unchanged),

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Harris (Daily Mail) has 6% (down from 9%), and

Sporting Index implied support levels are: Con 36.8%, Lab 27.2%, Lib 26.3%

Electoral Calculus, taking its average over all the pollsters and the implied market support figures, says the Conservative lead over Labour is 8% (down from 10%).

Its overall prediction for the election result is:

The Conservatives will win the most votes and the most seats

Labour and the Lib Dems are fighting for second and third place, but Labour will get more seats

Parliament will probably be hung.

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