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Super computer says Ipswich Town have a one in four shot at making the play-offs now

PUBLISHED: 06:00 25 February 2020

Ipswich Town manager Paul Lambert insists his team remain very much in the promotion hunt. Photo: Steve Waller

Ipswich Town manager Paul Lambert insists his team remain very much in the promotion hunt. Photo: Steve Waller

Stephen Waller

The odds of Ipswich Town going on to secure League One promotion from here have dropped to just 8% according to a comprehensive super computer simulation.

Sports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.comSports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.com

The Blues occupied a top-six spot for most of the campaign and returned to the top of the table following a 4-1 win against Lincoln on January 25.

However, a return of just four points from six games since then has seen Paul Lambert's men slip to eighth in the standings heading into their final 11 matches. Many of the teams above and below them have at least one game in hand to come too.

Website sportsclubstats.com crunches the numbers for a variety of sports across the globe. They have simulated results for the remainder of the League One campaign more than 25 million times to calculate the odds of certain outcomes for every team.

Ipswich's odds of finishing in the top two come out a just 1%, while their odds of promotion are 8%. Chances of a play-off finish are put at 25%, with the most likely finish said to be between seventh and 11th (68%).

If Town were to replicate their results from earlier in the campaign across the 11 reverse fixtures they finish with a record of W6 D3 L2 - those extra 21pts would give them, it is said, a 25% chance of finishing in the play-offs.

ODDS OF PROMOTION

Coventry City - 78%

Sports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.comSports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.com

Rotherham Utd - 68%

Wycombe Wdrs - 35%

Sunderland - 35%

Fleetwood - 23%

Sports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.comSports Club Stats have simulated the end of the League One season more than 25 million times to determine the odds of certain outcomes. Photo: sportsclubstats.com

Portsmouth - 22%

Peterborough - 19%

Oxford Utd - 10%

Ipswich Town - 8%

Gillingham - 2%

Doncaster Rvrs - 1%

IPSWICH TOWN ODDS OF FINISHING...

1st - 0%

2nd - 1%

3rd - 3%

4th - 5%

5th - 7%

6th - 10%

7th - 13%

8th - 16%

9th - 17%

10th - 13%

11th - 9%

12th - 4%

13th - 1%

HOW MANY POINTS ARE LIKELY REQUIRED FROM THE 33 UP FOR GRABS...

17pts (W5-D2-L4 / 4-5-2) = 4% chance of play-offs

18pts (5-3-3 / 4-6-1) = 12% chance of play-offs

19pts (5-4-2 / 6-1-4) = 25% chance of play-offs

20pts (6-2-3 / 5-5-1) = 43% chance of play-offs

21pts (6-3-2 / 7-0-4) = 67% chance of play-offs

22pts (6-4-1 / 7-1-3) = 84% chance of play-offs

23pts (7-2-2 / 6-5-0) = 94% chance of play-offs

IPSWICH TOWN'S REMAINING FIXTURES

Sat: Blackpool (a)

Tues Mar 3: Fleetwood (h)

Sat Mar 7: Coventry (h)

Sat Mar 14: Bristol Rovers (a)

Sat Mar 21: Portsmouth (h)

Sat Apr 4: Southend (h)

Fri Apr 10: Bolton (h)

Mon Apr 13: Shrewsbury (a)

Sat Apr 18: Rochdale (h)

Sat Apr 25: Doncaster (a)

Sun May 3: MK Dons (h)

EXPLANATION OF ODDS

"Sports Club Stats calculates each team's odds of winning the title, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot.

"It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game.

"The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

"It lets an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it's finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league's tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished.

"It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times, keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee.

"To help flush out each team's highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs."

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