Are Town heading for relegation? The stats that suggest it’s too early for panic

Paul Hurst is still looking for his first win as Ipswich Town manager. Picture: STEVE WALLER WWW.STEPHENWALLER.COM (Image: � Copyright Stephen Waller)

OVERVIEW

Ipswich Town find themselves 23rd in the Championship table following a nine-game winless start (D5 L4 5pts).

Many are beginning to question whether there will be a tipping point for owner Marcus Evans when it comes to weighing up the future of new boss Paul Hurst against the potential danger of relegation to League One.

The next two international breaks – which come after 12 and 16 games respectively – have been mooted as judgement points.

Town’s next seven games are: Birmingham (a), Middlesbrough (h), Swansea (a), QPR (h), Leeds (a), Millwall (a), Preston (h).

With that in mind, we have looked back at the last decade of the Championship and analysed the odds of relegation based on being in the bottom three at the nine, 12 and 16 game points.

• After nine games: 33%

• After 12 games: 43%

• After 16 games: 53%

Captain Luke Chambers had a late header which nearly won the Blues the game against Bolton on Saturday. Picture: STEVE WALLER WWW.STEPHENWALLER.COM (Image: © Copyright Stephen Waller)

Just twice over the last 10 years have all three teams that are in the bottom three after nine games all stayed up (08/09, 10/11), but just twice have all three teams in the bottom three after 16 games all gone down (11/12, 16/17).

Ipswich have finished below their nine-game placing in six of the last 10 seasons, finishing higher twice and ending up in the same spot twice.

2017/18

After nine (and where finished):

Sunderland 6pts 24th RELEGATED

Birmingham 5pts 19th

Bolton 2pts 21st

After 12:

Birmingham 8pts 19th

Sunderland 7pts 24th RELEGATED

Bolton 2pts 21st

After 16:

Birmingham 12pts 19th

Bolton 11pts 21st

Sunderland 10pts 24th RELEGATED

Town: 7th (after nine), 8th (after 12), 8th (after 16). Finished: 12th

• Mick McCarthy departed April 10, 2018 (42 league games)

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Mick McCarthy took over an Ipswich side which sat bottom in October 2012 and kept the Blues up. Picture: STEVE WALLER (Image: © Copyright Stephen Waller)

2016/17

After nine:

Derby 6pts 9th

Rotherham 6pts 24th RELEGATED

Wigan 5pts 23rd RELEGATED

After 12:

Blackburn 8pts 22nd RELEGATED

Cardiff 8pts 12th

Rotherham 6pts 24th RELEGATED

Tony Mowbray's Blackburn were relegated in 2016/17 but he led them to promotion last season. Picture: STEVE WALLER WWW.STEPHENWALLER.COM (Image: � Copyright Stephen Waller)

After 16:

Wigan 14pts 23rd RELEGATED

Blackburn 13pts 22nd RELEGATED

Rotherham 7pts 24th RELEGATED

Town: 14th, 16th, 15th. Finished: 16th

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Gwion Edwards skips past a Craig Noone challenge. Picture: STEVE WALLER WWW.STEPHENWALLER.COM (Image: © Copyright Stephen Waller)

2015/16

After nine:

Preston 7pts 11th

MK Dons 7pts 23rd RELEGATED

Bristol City 6pts 18th

After 12:

Charlton 10pts 22nd RELEGATED

Rotherham 9ts 21st

Bolton 8pts 24th RELEGATED

After 16:

Charlton 13pts 22nd RELEGATED

Bolton 11pts 24th RELEGATED

Rotherham 9pts 21st

Town: 7th, 11th, 10th. Finished: 7th

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2014/15

After nine:

Bolton 5pts 18th

Fulham 4pts 17th

Blackpool 2pts 24th RELEGATED

After 12:

Fulham 10pts 17th

Bolton 8pts 18th

Blackpool 6pts 24th RELEGATED

After 16:

Bolton 14pts 18th

Rotherham 14pts 21st

Blackpool 7pts 24th RELE

Town: 5th, 6th, 5th. Finished: 6th

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2013/14

After nine:

Sheffield Weds 4pts 16th

Bolton 4pts 14th

Barnsley 4pts 23rd RELEGATED

After 12:

Barnsley 8pts 23rd RELEGATED

Sheff Weds 7pts 16th

Yeovil 6pts 24th RELEGATED

After 16:

Sheff Weds 11pts 16th

Barnsley 11pts 23rd RELEGATED

Yeovil 9pts 24th RELEGATED

Town: 9th, 12th, 12th. Finished: 9th

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2012/13

After nine:

Millwall 8pts 20th

Ipswich 7pts 14th

Peterborough 6pts 22nd RELEGATED

After 12:

Peterborough 9pts 22nd RELEGATED

Sheff Weds 9pts 18th

Ipswich 7pts 14th

After 16:

Ipswich 13pts 14th

Peterborough 12pts 22nd RELEGATED

Bristol City 11pts 24th RELEGATED

Town: 23rd, 24th, 22nd. Finished: 14th

• Paul Jewell sacked October 24, 2012 (12 league games)

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2011/12

After nine:

Bristol City 6pts 20th

Doncaster 5pts 24th RELEGATED

Portsmouth -1pts 22nd RELEGATED

After 12:

Doncaster 8pts 24th RELEGATED

Bristol City 6pts 20th

Portsmouth 2pts 22nd RELEGATED

After 16:

Coventry 12pts 23rd RELEGATED

Doncaster 12pts 24th RELEGATED

Portsmouth 9pts 22nd RELEGATED

Town: 12th, 6th, 15th . Finished: 15th

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2010/11

After nine:

Crystal Palace 8pts 20th

Bristol City 6pts 15th

Leicester 5pts 10th

After 12:

Crystal Palace 11pts 20th

Preston 10pts 22nd RELEGATED

Bristol City 9pts 15th

After 16:

Hull 15pts 11th

Preston 14pts 22nd RELEGATED

Palace 14pts 20th

Town: 7th, 8th, 7th. Finished: 13th

• Roy Keane sacked January 7, 2011 (24 league games)

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2009/10

After nine:

Ipswich 4pts 15th

Plymouth 2pts 23rd RELEGATED

Crystal Palace 1pt 21st

After 12:

Plymouth 8pts 23rd RELEGATED

Palace 6pts 21st

Ipswich 6pts 15th

After 16:

Palace 12pts 21st

Ipswich 12pts 15th

Peterborough 11pts 24th RELEGATED

Town: 22nd, 24th, 23rd. Finished: 15th

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2008/09

After nine:

Doncaster 7pts 14th

Barnsley 5pts 20th

Nottm Forest 5pts 19th

After 12:

Barnsley 11pts 20th

Doncaster 8pts 14th

Nottm Forest 6pts 19th

After 16:

Watford 15pts 13th

Nottm Forest 11pts 19th

Doncaster 9pts 14th

Town: 11th, 17th, 8th. Finished: 9th

• Jim Magilton sacked April 22, 2009 (44 league games)