I am sure that I am not alone in being pleased to see the back of 2023, and to welcome in 2024 which looks set to be a much better year for residents and businesses in Suffolk.

Just over a year ago, economists and some local commentators purporting to represent local businesses were predicting UK inflation and interest rates hitting eye watering levels. Goldman Sachs suggested inflation may even hit 20%. Even when it quickly became apparent that this was not going to happen, there were still suggestions being made of interest rates hitting 7%. As it turned out, interest rates have almost certainly peaked at 5.25% and inflation topped out at 11% before falling back rapidly.

Last year’s inaccurate headline grabbing predictions were not a victimless crime given that the predictions themselves helped to fuel increased costs of borrowing for businesses and mortgage holders alike. Thankfully, they have proven to be inaccurate and wide of the mark and whilst a difficult year for many, 2023 saw the UK economy turn a corner after many months of inflationary pressures caused by the Covid pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

November’s inflation data saw UK inflation fall to less than four percent for the first time in two years. A significant reduction in inflation is good news for both mortgage holders and businesses, as it will almost certainly very soon be followed by interest rate cuts and a reduction in the cost of borrowing and lower mortgages. The big drop in inflation also means that real term take home pay is now rising faster than the cost of living, which equals more money in the pocket for hard working families.

So why have we seen these mistakes in forecasting? I was not entirely surprised to see some local commentators proven wrong given their personal agendas and lack of expertise in such matters, but the substantive answer reflects poorly on the economics profession.

Anyone who had taken the time to understand inflation would have been aware that the UK economy delayed the impact of higher energy costs through the energy price guarantee, which in effect saw the Government subsidising household energy costs on a massive scale.

As wholesale gas prices came down and the latest forecast suggests another 14% fall in prices in April, the UK was always poised to see its inflation rate converge with that of other major economic countries. The result of this falling trend in energy prices, falling mortgage costs, and the recent increase in take home pay relative to the cost of living is that household spending looks set to be considerably stronger this year.

So, whilst the Bank of England forecasts limited growth in the economy in 2024, this may well be proven to be an inaccurate prediction yet again. People having more money in their pockets often translates into improved economic growth and that is likely to be the case again this year.

This is not to understate the challenges facing our economy. The impact of the Covid pandemic masked what effect Brexit may or may not have had on the UK economy, but despite encouraging inflation data, consumer prices in the UK have grown by 21% compared to 19% across the Eurozone over the past two years. However, in general, the UK economy is performing rather more in line with, or better, than its major trading partners than had been predicted a year ago.

In Suffolk, I regularly visit many of our local businesses. Suffolk’s manufacturing businesses continue to do well, and many continue to grow their profits, to expand, and to create more local jobs. Over the past few years, Britain - and Suffolk as the home of the Port of Felixstowe - has become a better environment for manufacturing firms. As a country we are now developing a competitive advantage in manufacturing over many of our European rivals thanks to post-Brexit trade deals creating new export opportunities. This is good news for Suffolk and means more jobs for local people.

So, as we welcome in a New Year, the signs are positive for local businesses and households here in Suffolk, and I have little doubt that 2024 will be a better year for many of us than 2023.

Dr Dan Poulter is Conservative MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich