The UK's pig sector - including East Anglia's sizeable herd - is set for a massive reduction as farmers exit the industry, experts warn.

With the cost of producing pigs outpacing the price farmers can achieve, many are voting with their feet, they say.

Andrew Knowles, chief executive of Framlingham-based farm co-operative Fram Farmers described it as "Armageddon" as up to a fifth of the herd goes. Bury St Edmunds pig consultant Peter Crichton said a massive shortage of pigs was predicted for the autumn as herds were reduced.

"I don't think the supply chain has quite woken up to what's going on," said Mr Knowles. "I think the shelves of pig meat in supermarkets could get smaller and they'll be replaced by more chicken."

The market was skewed earlier in the year as breeding sows were slaughtered on a large scale as pig producers battled to turn around their businesses in the face of sharply rising feed and other costs while pig prices stayed stubbornly low.

Due to Covid-19 labour shortages, there were huge delays at abattoirs leading to big backlogs. Pigs went overweight while waiting for slaughter and this led not only to higher feed costs but also lower prices because the carcases didn't conform to specification.

"Feed prices then climbed even higher due to Ukraine war and subsequent impact on global commodity markets pushing cost of production to 230p/kg by April when the pig price was just 155p/kg," said Mr Knowles.

Retailers and abattoir supply chains were slow or reluctant to acknowledge the financial crisis for producers, he added, while some may have switched to sourcing pigs from the European Union, where the pig sector is also in crisis.

"The consequence of these decisions is now materialising. Pig producers are liquidating herds and AHDB/DEFRA forecast is that the UK herd has declined by over 40,000 sows over the past year, and this will result in a 6% reduction in UK pigmeat production this year, followed by an even bigger fall next year," he said.

Mr Crichton pointed out that pig meat prices had risen since January from 140p/kg to 196p/kg now - but this was still not enough. The real turning point in the ongoing crisis was February when the invasion of Ukraine led to shockwaves around the world and feed prices shot up, he said. These prices had fallen but by nowhere near enough to put producers back in the black.

"EU pig meat prices are still at low levels with the influential German producer price remaining unchanged at 1.85 euros (155p/kg), with the result that pig meat imports continue to undercut the home market by a country mile," he said.

"However, one plus point is that UK carcase weights have dropped to 87.69kg indicating that there is very little in the way of a backlog of overweight pig left in the system.

He added: "A massive shortage of pigs backed up by recent figures is forecast in the autumn and many more herds to be culled, with a huge decline in slaughter pig availability this autumn following a crash in the monthly numbers of weaned pigs believed to be over 300,00 head in July and 298,000 head in August. On this basis, it looks as though pigs in blankets will be in short supply and valuable at Christmas time."