UK: Poll predicts Scots will reject independence

Yes and No campaigners (names not given) outside Notre Dame School in Glasgow

Yes and No campaigners (names not given) outside Notre Dame School in Glasgow - Credit: PA

A poll of people who voted in the Scottish referendum has predicted that Scots will reject independence by a margin of 54% to 46%.

With no exit polls conducted during the historic ballot, the survey by polling company YouGov was the only pointer for people eager for an early clue to the result, expected to be announced around breakfast-time tomorrow.

YouGov based its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, as well as 800 people who had already cast their ballots by post. All respondents had previously taken part in a voting intention survey earlier this week, allowing the company to assess any last-minute shifts in views.

The responses indicated a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.

Some 10% of No voters said they had encountered unreasonable behaviour by Yes campaigners when they went to cast their ballots, while 5% of Yes voters said they witnessed unreasonable activity by the No camp.

The post-election poll was broadly in line with surveys in the final days before the referendum, which gave No a lead of between two and six points.

The final poll before voting started, by Ipsos-Mori poll for the London Evening Standard, found 53% of voters planned to vote No, while 47% said they would vote Yes, after excluding undecided voters.

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