It’s 11 days until Ipswich Town are back in League One action. STUART WATSON takes the chance to reflect on the Blues’ start to the campaign.
TIME TO REFLECT
Following last Tuesday night’s 3-2 win at Port Vale, Blues boss Kieran McKenna was asked how he assessed his side’s opening third of the campaign.
“I haven't spent too much time reflecting,” he replied.
“It's all eyes and all guns blazing ahead of Charton on Saturday now.
“November is a little bit different with at least one, hopefully two FA Cup ties, plus an EFL (Trophy) tie and not so many league games.
“So I think once we get through Saturday it will be a chance to look back on the first period of the season.”
So let’s do just that....
THE BASICS
Town are 17 matches into their 46-game League One campaign (37%).
They sit second in the table with 11 wins, four draws and two defeats to their name.
The Blues are four points behind leaders Plymouth, three points clear of third-place Sheffield Wednesday and 12 clear of seventh-place Derby.
McKenna’s men went out of the Carabao Cup at the first hurdle, losing 1-0 at home to League Two strugglers Colchester United, but are through to the Papa John’s Trophy knockout stages and also have the FA Cup to come.
There are a minimum of 31 games left in all competitions, though that number could get closer to 40 depending on cup progress/replays.
RECENT HISTORY COMPARISON
How does 37 points on the board at this stage compare to previous seasons?
It represents a 13-point increase on last season’s slow start (W6 D6 L5), is eight points up on the start made in 2020/21 (W9 D2 L6) and is two points ahead of what Paul Lambert’s men had following a flying start to the 19/20 campaign (W10 D5 L2).
MILES COVERED
Long trips to Accrington, Plymouth and Morecambe are out the way. Ipswich have already travelled 3,712 of their scheduled 8,359 miles for league games this season (44%).
After the game at Exeter on November 19, Ipswich don't have another significant journey until Bristol Rovers on Tuesday, February 14.
The cups could yet throw up some serious mileage and fixture congestion, of course, but as it stands there are only four midweek matches left on the calendar.
McKenna will be relishing the chance for some extra time on the training pitch.
LIKE-FOR-LIKE FIXTURES
Comparing like-for-like fixtures from the previous campaign isn’t an exact science due to teams coming into the division from above and below.
What I’ve done here is align this season’s League One new boys to the club that had finished in the same Championship or League Two position a year earlier.
For example: Forest Green (League Two champions in 2022) are the equivalent of Cheltenham Town (League Two champions in 2021), while Barnsley (bottom of the Championship in 2022) are the equivalent of Sheffield Wednesday (bottom of the Championship in 2021).
To complete the set, Exeter = Cambridge, Bristol Rovers = Bolton, Port Vale = Morecambe, Peterborough = Wycombe and Derby = Rotherham.
It’s a far from perfect system, given that Cheltenham, Cambridge, Bolton, Morecambe, Wycombe and Sheffield Wednesday all remain in the division, but it does give us a system on which to judge Town’s season-on-season progress.
I’ll cut to the chase. Ipswich are a staggering 28 points up using the above model. They’ve bettered 14 of the equivalent 17 fixtures and gone backwards in just one.
Here’s the breakdown:
Bolton (h): L 5-0 > D 1-1 = +1pt.
Forest Green Rovers (a): L 2-1 (Cheltenham) > W 2-1 = +3pts.
MK Dons (h): D 2-2 > W 3-0 = +2pts.
Burton (a): L 2-1 > W 1-0 = +3pts.
Shrewsbury (a): D 1-1 > W 3-0 = +2pts.
Barnsley (h): D 1-1 (Sheff W) > D 2-2 = Same.
Accrington (a): L 2-1 > W 2-0 = +3pts.
Bristol Rovers (h): L 5-2 (Bolton) > W 2-0 = +3pts.
Sheff Weds (a): L 1-0 > D 2-2 = +1pt.
Plymouth (a): L 2-1 > L 2-1 = Same.
Portsmouth (h): D 0-0 > W 3-2 = +2pts.
Cambridge Utd (h): L 1-0 > W 3-0 = +3pts.
Morecambe (a): D 1-1 > W 2-1 = +2pts.
Lincoln (h): L 1-0 > W 2-0 = -3pts
Derby (h): L 1-0 (Rotherham) > W 1-0 = +3pts.
Port Vale (a): D 1-1 (Morecambe) > W 3-2 = +2pts.
Charlton (a): L 2-0 > D 4-4 = +1pt.
CLUB HISTORY COMPARISON
Points-wise (37), this is one of the best starts to a season in Ipswich Town’s entire history.
Here’s where Blues sides were at, 17 league games in, during the club’s most iconic campaigns:
00/01: W9 D3 L5 Pts 30 (Finished fifth in top-flight).
99/00: W8 D4 L5 Pts 28 (Finished second-tier play-off winners).
98/99: W9 D5 L3 Pts 32 (Finished third in second-tier).
91/92: W7 D7 L3 Pts 28 (Won second-tier title).
81/82: W11 D2 L4 Pts 35 (Finished second in top-flight).
80/81: W10 D6 L1 Pts 36 (Finished second in top-flight and won UEFA Cup).
79/80: W6 D2 L9 Pts 20 (Finished third in top-flight).
76/77: W11 D4 L2 Pts 37 (Finished third in top-flight).
74/75: W9 D2 L6 Pts 29 (Finished third in top-flight).
67/68: W8 D8 L1 Pts 32 (Second-tier champions).
61/62: W8 D3 L6 Pts 27 (Top-flight champions).
ON TRACK?
Ipswich have taken an average of 2.18 points per games so far. Extrapolated over the course of a 46-game season that equates to 100 points - title-winning form.
For reference, using an average from the last 10 fully completed seasons, here’s what it takes to finish where in League One:
1st: 95pts, 2nd: 90pts, 3rd: 85pts, 4th: 79pts, 5th: 79pts, 6th: 74pts.
One way of looking at is that Town are already halfway to a play-offs securing total with only a third of the season played. So a top-six finish, which proved elusive in the first three seasons of League One football, is already looking a very good bet.
The top eight at this stage of last season finished as the top eight.
So was McKenna right last week when he said that 'the league table does tell lies at this stage'.
There's normally a team or two who make a charge up the standings during the second half of the campaign.
Of bigger concern is that recent history does sound a slight note of caution regarding Town's chances of automatic promotion from here though.
The last three seasons suggests that one of the early top two last the distance, while the other fades away.
Plymouth were top at this stage of last season with 36 points. They ended up seventh.
Lincoln were second at this stage of 2020/21 with 32 points. They finished fifth.
Ipswich, of course, were second at this stage of 2019/20. And they finished 11th.
Let’s hope Town are a team with staying power. There is certainly more than enough evidence - as part two of this piece will address - to believe they can be.
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