Ipswich Town have 20 league games left this season. STUART WATSON takes a look at the League One promotion race.
THEN AND NOW
It’s important to start with a reminder of the progress which has led us to this juncture.
In 2019/20, Town had 45 points after 26 games. In 2020/21, it was 40 points.
This time last year, Ipswich had just lost 2-0 at Bolton in what was Kieran McKenna’s third game in charge.
The Blues were 11th in the League One table with 35 points (W9 D8 L9). They were eight points away from the play-off places and 16 adrift of the top-two.
Twenty-six games into this season, Town are third with 51 points (W14 D9 L3). That’s a year-on-year improvement of eight places and 16 points.
THE RIVALS
The problem is that three other clubs have set an equally impressive third-tier pace over the last year.
If you put together a League One table starting from McKenna’s first game in charge then the top of it looks like this:
1st: Sheffield Wednesday P49 Pts 100
2nd: Plymouth Argyle P49 Pts 95
3rd: Ipswich Town P49 Pts 92
4th: Bolton Wanderers P50 Pts 91.
Then you've got Derby County and Barnsley starting to really find their feet in this division following relegation from the Championship.
PREVIOUS MARKERS
Wigan and Rotherham finished first and second in League One last season on 92 and 90 points.
At the 26-game mark, they each had 56 and 53 points on the board respectively.
Sunderland had the next highest points tally at that stage on 50 (one less than Ipswich now). They finished fifth and went on to win the play-offs.
Do the top-two at this stage, more often than not, end up fininshing there?
No. Barnsley were fifth in mid-January 2019 and finished second. Blackburn and Bolton were third at this time of year in 2018 and 2017 respectively - they both ended up second. Wigan climbed from fifth to first in 2016, while MK Dons went from fourth to second in 2015.
So it's still all to play for.
CURRENT PICTURE
Town find themselves 13 points clear of seventh-place Wycombe.
A top-six finish – something that eluded Town in the first three seasons of League One football (11th, ninth and 11th) - therefore looks highly likely.
The big question is whether it’s going to be automatic promotion or the play-offs.
The Blues are currently seven points behind leaders Plymouth (with a game in hand) and four behind second-place Sheffield Wednesday.
Is this is a three-horse race for the top two? Probably. But there are two or three other clubs to look out for on the rails.
Derby and Bolton are both 11 points off second, while Barnsley are 15 points back. Derby and Barnsley have one and two games in hand respectively.
WHAT'S REQUIRED?
I’ve taken a look back over the previous 10 full seasons to get an idea of what’s generally required at the top end of League One.
The final points tally of the champions has ranged from 84 (Doncaster in 2013) to 103 (Wolves in 2014). The average is 95.
The final points tally of the team that finished second has ranged from 83 (Bournemouth 2013) to 96 (Blackburn 2018). The average is 90.
To hit that 90-point average, Ipswich need 39 points from their final 20 games (W12 D3 L5).
To match the upper end of the spectrum (96), the Blues need another 45 (W14 D3 L3).
For context, Town have taken 40 from their last 20.
The most they have claimed in a 20-game league block under McKenna is 44.
For those who want to pore over the probabilities, excellent website sportsclubstats is worth a look.
FORM GUIDE
Over the last 10 league games, Town have claimed 15 points (W3 D6 L1).
That run – which starts from the dramatic 4-4 draw at Charlton – puts them ninth in the League One form table.
Sheffield Wednesday top that list (W7 D3 Pts 24) ahead of Derby (W5 D5 Pts 20) and Barnsley (W6 D1 L3 Pts 19).
Plymouth have only claimed two more points than Town over the last 10 (W4 D5 L1).
TWO BIG WINDOWS
Here are a couple of big blocks of fixtures to look out for over the coming four months.
The first is a huge fortnight in early February.
On Saturday, February 4, it’s Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth (with Ipswich at Cambridge United).
A week later, on Saturday, February 11, it’s Ipswich Town v Sheffield Wednesday (with Plymouth hosting Portsmouth).
The second is a four-week period running between Tuesday, March 7 to Saturday, April 1.
Plymouth have games against Derby (h) and Barnsley (a) in the space of five days.
Sheffield Wednesday face Barnsley (h) and Barnsley (a) in the space of five days.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have away trips to Bolton, Barnsley and Derby.
The promotion picture will be a lot clearer come the start of Easter weekend.
CUP KINK
The division’s top three sides still have cup games to come.
Plymouth have a midweek Papa Johns Trophy semi-final home clash with Cheltenham to come in late February.
Win that and they will have a Wembley final, against the winners of Accrington and Bolton, on Sunday, April 2.
Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday both remain in the FA Cup.
Town host Championship leaders Burnley a week on Saturday.
Sheffield Wednesday, meanwhile, have a very winnable home tie with Fleetwood on the same day.
Will the cups prove to be an unwanted distraction/strain on the schedule, or a boost to momentum and morale? Let’s see.
THE RUN-INS
Out of the current top three, Plymouth have got the fewest top-six sides left to play (three).
Ipswich have the most bottom-six sides left to face (six). Four of those – Forest Green (h), MK Dons (a), Burton (h) and Accrington (h) - come all in a row from February 18 to March 7.
That could be an important window to build powerful momentum.
Sheffield Wednesday have, on paper, the toughest final day fixture – at home to Derby.
Plymouth finish up at Port Vale on May 6, while Ipswich will be at Fleetwood.
UP NEXT...
As all managers and players will tell you, the most important game is always the next one.
Ipswich are at Oxford United on Saturday (a side they beat 3-0 at Portman Road on Boxing Day).
Plymouth, who have won 12 of their 13 home league games, face Cheltenham at fortress Home Park.
Sheffield Wednesday will be looking to make it six wins on the spin in all competitions when they host Fleetwood.
It’s fourth-v-fifth as Derby County host Bolton Wanderers, while Barnsley welcome Accrington to Oakwell.
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