Ipswich Town are about to embark on their first Championship season in five years. Stuart Watson gives his thoughts on how the Blues might do.
Hello again Championship, sorry we took you for granted.
This is one of, if not the, most competitive divisions in world football (insert ‘anyone can beat anyone’ cliché here).
It is, without question, the globe’s best supported second-tier. More than half of the clubs in it (including newly-promoted Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday) had average home crowds of 20k+ last season.
The prize – promotion to the promised land of the Premier League, with all the riches and exposure that brings – is one of the biggest in the game.
There's a reason, of course, why we all got a bit fed up with it before. Town had 17 years in the same league - familiarity breeds contempt. The club’s death by a thousand cuts decline, which I don’t need to revisit in any depth here, meant it increasingly felt like a slog rather than a thrill ride. It was like constantly being the designated driver at a great party.
That’s all in the past now though. The Town tanker has finally turned. We’re swapping Forest Green, Accrington and Morecambe for Leeds, Leicester and Southampton. It’s exciting - mainly because Ipswich return to this level not just looking to make up the numbers.
The club’s American owners and chief executive Mark Ashton have made it clear that reaching the Premier League is the goal and that they have a ‘healthy impatience’.
Kieran McKenna, who sampled Champions League football as Manchester United’s assistant manager, has not shied away from the fact that he wants to return to the very top levels of the game.
So what is a realistic aim this season? It’s hard to know. I’ll start with a few things that give me cause for optimism.
One: Stability. Signing George Hirst permanently means just three per cent of league starts from last season have been lost - that’s the smallest turnover in the division. The average, for context, is 23% - and that number will rise over the coming weeks as clubs brace themselves to lose key men. Ipswich, meanwhile, are in an enviable position where they don’t need to sell anyone.
In addition, seven clubs in the division are starting out with new managers. A slow transfer market means most are still trying to reshape their squads as the big kick-off fast approaches. A hectic summer - as Town found in 2021 during Paul Cook's 'Demolition Man' phase - can make for a disrupted start that is tough to recover from.
Two: Momentum. You cannot underestimate the manner in which Town got promoted. Goals flowed and scalps were taken. Winning became a habit.
Three: Kieran McKenna. He adapted to the specific challenges of League One pretty quick and I’m confident he’ll do the same in the Championship. We know Ipswich have got an intelligent, meticulous, driven manager who can improve what he’s got.
Four: The proven core. In goalkeeper Christian Walton, midfield captain Sam Morsy and topscorer Conor Chaplin the Blues have got three players down the spine of the team who have delivered at Championship level. Exciting forward Nathan Broadhead shone in the second-tier last for Wigan last season too, while Jack Taylor earned plaudits during his single season in the Championship with Peterborough.
There’s also reason to believe that the likes of Leif Davis, Luke Woolfenden, George Hirst and Harry Clarke – who have all had a taste of the Championship as young players – can make the transition.
Five: The style of play. McKenna could have taken the easy route and played percentge football to escape League One. Instead, he stuck to his principles, believing that his possession-based brand had a higher ceiling for success. Burnley swept everyone aside in the Championship playing front foot football last season and Ipswich gave the Clarets a run for their money over two FA Cups. That bodes well.
It’s all of the above that has left many pundits predicting that Town could be in the mix for back-to-back promotions. That opinion has also probably been guided by the fact that Luton were able to get promoted last season, while Coventry and Sunderland (fresh from promotion) finished in the play-offs.
My personal feeling, without being too much of a killjoy, is that might be a stretch too far. Obviously I hope I’m wrong, and a couple of signings before the transfer window shuts may change that opinion, but I just think it might take a season for Town to feel their way into this most unforgiving of divisions.
Is there enough strength in depth? We might find out pretty quickly with the likes of Walton, Luongo, Broadhead and Clarke going into the season with injuries and niggles. Has a gruelling pre-season contributed to that? Or will the hard yards put in now pay dividends come the winter months? Time will tell.
The biggest factor is the level of opposition. League One was very much a table of two halves. The Championship is not.
Leicester look nailed on for automatic promotion to me. They managed to sell James Maddison and Harvey Barnes relatively early and have made eye-catching additions in Conor Coady and Harry Winks, among others. The Foxes, under Pep Guardiola’s former assistant Enzo Maresca, are giving me Newcastle in 2009/10 and 2016/17 vibes.
Leeds and Southampton, who still have a fair bit of housekeeping to do after relegation, will surely be up there. I think Middlesbrough and Coventry look well-equipped to go again after play-off finishes under the management of Michael Carrick and Mark Robins.
Sunderland and Blackburn I’m less certain about - they’ve lost key men in Amad Diallo and Ben Brereton Diaz respectively – but to counteract that I’m sure that one or two from the middle pack will kick on in 2023/24. Swansea and Watford, under new bosses Michael Duff and Valérien Ismaël, intrigue me. I also think Bristol City and Stoke, who both finished in the bottom half last season, have recruited well too.
I’ve not even mentioned the likes of Birmingham, Huddersfield (who both have new US owners), Millwall, West Brom, Norwich (who I do think will be better than last season, I’m afraid to say) and Hull.
Ultimately, all of the above has led to me to cautiously predicting an eighth-place finish for Town. The fact that might be seen by some as pessimistic tells you everything about the feelgood factor surrounding the club right now.
There’s nothing for Ipswich to fear this season, but equally there is plenty to be respectful of. Keeping that level of humility is McKenna’s job. The rest of us can dare to dream. That's what this time of year is for.
This is season number 13 for me covering the Blues home and away. I look forward, as ever, to bringing you coverage throughout. Enjoy the ride!
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