Ipswich Town are back on the road for the penultimate time this season, taking on in-form West Brom at The Hawthorns this afternoon (12:30pm). Alex Jones previews the action...
SHORT TURNAROUND
This is a busy time for Ipswich. While the finish line is in sight, fatigue – both physical and mental – will start to creep in.
Town haven’t had a full week to prepare for a game since the March international break. They won’t have another this season. The last week or two have been particularly draining.
From the highs of the derby win against Norwich City to the lows of the defeat at Portsmouth, followed by a 2-2 draw against Middlesbrough that felt like a rollercoaster ride packed into 90 minutes.
The Blues had to dig deep in midweek to take three points at Charlton Athletic, coming from behind after conceding inside the opening minute of the match.
There are still concerns around performances, despite suffering one defeat in 12. An improvement will be needed going into the final three games. The next two look particularly tough.
A DAUNTING TEST
Forget Southampton and QPR. Ipswich cannot look past today’s game. It’s far from an easy three points, despite the fact that West Brom sit 20th in the Championship following a two-point deduction. They rank seventh in the xG table and comfortably pass the eye test.
The Baggies have pulled away from the bottom three after a disastrous spell under Eric Ramsay, who replaced Ryan Mason in charge earlier this year. Interim boss James Morrison has overseen a nine-match unbeaten run, which includes four wins and five draws.
Southampton, Wrexham and Millwall have all dropped points at The Hawthorns in that time. Hull City were convincingly beaten last month. West Brom come into this game off the back of consecutive wins, having kept clean sheets in each of their last four games.
Morrison looks a strong candidate to get the job on a permanent basis and the players are working hard to impress him ahead of next season.
The 39-year-old has switched to a 4-4-2 formation, boasting a strong back line playing behind four natural midfielders. The physical front two have been chopped and changed but always remain a threat.
Keep an eye out for Isaac Price, who seems likely to start on the left wing. In the absence of the injured Michael Johnston, the Northern Ireland international has taken the spotlight after a dip in form, now with nine goals and two assists to his name.
Possible West Brom XI: 4-4-2: O’Leary; Imray, Phillips, Campbell, Styles; Molumby, Diakite, Mowatt, Price; Heggebo, Maja
THE STATE OF PLAY
All eyes are on Ipswich, but it’s impossible to ignore what’s going on elsewhere.
Millwall played out a 1-1 draw away at relegated Leicester City last night. That's a huge result for McKenna's men, who know that four points from their remaining three games will effectively get them over the line.
Back-to-back victories would secure a top-two finish at St. Mary's next week. If not, it will go to final day. There is, however, a margin for error now.
Middlesbrough, like Town, are an early kick-off today, hosting out-of-form Watford at the Riverside at lunchtime.
Southampton aren’t in action in the league, instead facing Premier League leaders Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley this afternoon. What that will do for them ahead of hosting the Blues on Tuesday night remains to be seen.
It’s a four-horse race, with Boro chasing at the back while Southampton sit ahead of them on goal difference. Town and Millwall are the favourites. The Lions have just one match left, at home to Oxford United on final day.
Kieran McKenna’s men have their fate in their own hands, having mathematically secured a top-six finish with the midweek win at The Valley. Ending up in the play-offs, however, would be a huge disappointment at this point.
WHO COULD START?
There will certainly be some changes for Ipswich, given the hectic schedule. I’m predicting two.
Christian Walton will keep his place in goal, playing behind Darnell Furlong, Dara O’Shea and Jacob Greaves. Leif Davis missed the Charlton game with a hamstring injury and could return here, but I’d only bring him back in if he’s 100%. If not, it should be Ben Johnson.
Ahead of them, it’s hard to look past a midfield duo of Azor Matusiwa and Jack Taylor.
Then things get a bit trickier. Wes Burns shouldn’t be rushed back from his calf injury, so Kasey McAteer seems likely to go again ahead of Sindre Walle Egeli. On the left, I prefer Jaden Philogene to Jack Clarke as a starter.
Anis Mehmeti probably didn’t do enough in midweek to keep his place in the no.10 role, so I’d expect Marcelino Nunez to come in, hopefully feeling fresher after a brief cameo in South London.
Up top, I believe George Hirst will stand a better chance up against the Baggies’ back line than Ivan Azon.
Possible Town XI: 4-2-3-1: Walton; Furlong, O’Shea, Greaves, Johnson; Matusiwa, Taylor; McAteer, Nunez, Philogene; Azon
MY PREDICTION
This isn’t a game that Ipswich want at this stage of the run-in. West Brom aren’t on the beach and are in great form, even if they haven’t churned out loads of wins in the last few weeks. They are incredibly tough to beat, conceding few chances while being clinical in the final third.
I still don’t think Town are at their best. If nothing else, they will have to match the Baggies in terms of the intangibles – fight, desire, grit and determination. Beyond that, the Blues’ quality might be enough to get them over the line.
The Hawthorns has been a bit of a graveyard for teams looking to kick on in the promotion race and Ipswich haven't won there since 1999. I’m not convinced that they will have what it takes to pick up all three points, but I’d love to be proven wrong. I’m going with a 1-1 draw.
It's not a must-win, but it certainly feels like a must-not-lose.
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