Forty-five goals or less? Some survive, but many don’t...
Ipswich Town - Credit: Archant
RECENT history suggests that Ipswich Town’s paltry goal tally puts their chances of Championship survival at around 50/50.
The Blues are the division’s lowest scorers with just 35 in 37 games, with just two having been scored in the last seven.
Replicate their goal-a-game ratio under Mick McCarthy’s management over the remaining eight matches and the projected final tally is just 43.
Over the past decade, 25 teams have finished with a goals tally of 45 or lower in English football’s second tier. Eleven of them have stayed up, the other 14 have gone down.
The average number of goals conceded by the 14 that were relegated was 64. The average number conceded by the teams that survived was 56.
Ipswich’s final total is likely to fall somewhere between that number.
The Blues have so far leaked 55 goals in 37 games – and five clean sheets from the last eight suggests they can keep that number down.
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It’s been one of the most competitive Championships in recent history, with it likely that averages will need to be exceeded for survival.
Over the 17 seasons in which three teams have been relegated from English football’s second tier, the average number of points achieved by the team that finished third from bottom has been 47.
The most anyone has been relegated with has been 52 – the unfortunate Leicester and Millwall going down in 2008 and 1996 respectively.
The division’s current bottom three – Bristol City, Wolves and Peterborough – are all currently on 39 points. That’s just one shy of the total that both Portsmouth and Coventry were relegated with last season. Town are on 43. And there are still 27 points to play for.
The way things are going, it’s going to need a better goals and points tally than ever before.
One thing’s for sure, we’re set for a nervous finish.
LOW-SCORING SURVIVORS
11/12: Bristol C F44 A58 20th
10/11: Palace F44 A69 20th
09/10: Swansea F44 A69 7th
08/09: Barnsley F45 A58 20th
Plymouth F44 A57 21st
05/06: Sheff Wed F39 A52 19th
Plymouth F39 A46 14th
04/05: Brighton F40 A64 20th
Burnley F38 A39 13th
04/05: Stoke F35 A38 12th
02/03: Stoke F45 A69 21st
RELEGATED LOW-SCORERS
11/12: Coventry F41 A65 23rd
Doncaster F43 A80 24th
10/11: Sheff Utd F44 A79 23rd
Scunthorpe F43 A87 24th
09/10: Plymouth F43 A68 23rd
07/08: Leicester F42 A45 22nd
05/06: Millwall F35 A62 23rd
Brighton F32 A71 24th
04/05: Gill’ham F45 A66 22nd
Nott Forest F42 A66 23rd
Rotherham F35 A69 24th
03/04: Walsall F45 A65 22nd
Bradford F38 A69 23rd
Wimbledon F41 A89 24th
